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Next-token prediction

Where answers come from — tokens, one step at a time, temperature, and why fluent never means correct.

In a nutshell Property #1 of four: where the model's answers actually come from. It doesn't pull a ready answer from storage — it produces text one piece at a time, each step predicting the most likely continuation of everything written so far. Grasp this and you grasp both the power and the quirks of AI.

What a token is

The model works not with letters, and not quite with words, but with tokens — chunks of text. A token is often a whole word, but long or rare words split into parts ("unbelievable" → "un", "believ", "able"), and spaces and punctuation count too. Roughly: 1 token ≈ 4 characters. A model's limits and context length are measured in tokens, not words (see working memory & context).

How an answer is born

The model produces text step by step, left to right, running one loop:

all the text so far probabilitiesfor each next token pick oneand append it …and start over, now with the new token
Token by token — the model doesn't know the ending in advance; it builds it stepwise.

Analogy. A well-read person playing "finish the sentence". You say "The capital of France is", they say "Paris", because that's almost always how it continues. They don't open a reference — they feel how text flows. On common phrases, flawless; on rare ones they'll still confidently continue, because the game is not to go silent.

Why "fluent ≠ correct"

Since the job is a plausible continuation, not a truth check:

Elegant phrasing is not a sign of being right. A confident tone is a style baked in by training, not an indicator of accuracy.

Why answers differ each time

If it always took the single most likely token, answers would be identical and dull. So randomness is added to the choice — the temperature parameter:

Ask twice, get two answers. Not a bug — a built-in probabilistic nature.

Takeaways

Source

Anthropic Academy course AI Capabilities and Limitations, section "Next Token Prediction".

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